Who’s in? Who’s out? World Cup stock-take with one stage to go

The 2014 Archery World Cup season isn’t as clear-cut as in recent years. The rankings are closer across the board after stage three in Antalya, with few athletes recording multiple medal finishes. Almost anyone with points recorded after three legs of the circuit has a chance to secure an invitation to Lausanne.

This year’s Asian Games has muddied the qualification situation even further. With nations sitting out stage four to prepare for the Incheon 2014 event, more points in Wroclaw are available to archers lower down the rankings.

Just who will take advantage of this remains to be seen…

Who’s in?

Recurve men: Only eight points separate first and seventh in the World Cup Rankings. But Olympic Champion OH Jin Hyek, from Korea, and top Dutchman Rick VAN DER VEN are locks.

Recurve women: JUNG Dasomi’s snuck a nice lead. She has seven points over JOO Hyun Jung – who’s only five points ahead of Korea number three CHANG Hye Jin in seventh! (Who is out: since a maximum of two athletes from any one nation can qualify.)

Compound men: The only man who can’t be caught is French archer Sebastien PEINEAU, who won the first stage in Shanghai. Medellin gold medallist Peter ELZINGA (NED) – who recently shot a perfect 360 for 36 arrows in practice – and the holder of the best World Cup stage record going, Reo WILDE, are in, too.

Compound women: Erika JONES (USA), reigning champion Alejandra USQUIANO (COL) and Toja CERNE (SLO) should already have their invitations in the post. The rest is wide open.

2014 Archery World Cup Ranking | Top threes, three stages complete Position Recurve men Recurve women Compound men Compound women 1 OH Jin Hyek (KOR) JUNG Dasomi (KOR) Seb PEINEAU (FRA) Erika JONES (USA) 2 Rick VAN DER VEN (NED) JOO Hyun Jung (KOR) Peter ELZINGA (NED) Alejandra USQUIANO (COL) 3 LEE Seungyun (KOR) Elena RICHTER (GER) Reo WILDE (USA) Toja CERNE (SLO)

Who’s out?

At this stage, no points means no chance to win a spot at Lausanne 2014. They, along with the crowd with a handful of points, need nothing short of a miracle to qualify. This group should already be looking forward to 2015:

Deepika KUMARI (IND) – recurve woman, not ranked: KUMARI’s run of World Cup Final silvers will end at three. Martin DAMSBO (DEN) – compound man, 5pts (22nd): Technically, it’s possible for reigning World Cup champ Martin, but he’ll need to win Wroclaw. Even then, he’ll need the rest of the field to fall favourably. Pascale LEBECQUE (FRA), Sophie DODEMONT (FRA) and Jamie VAN NATTA (USA) – compound women, 5pts (23rd): LEBECQUE was lost to injury for Antalya, and has recently been rehabilitating by shooting recurve, while DODEMONT and VAN NATTA have had team success in 2014 – but struggled individually.

With a two-athlete cap for nations, and teams with three or four members shooting well, these high-qualifiers will likely stay at home:

KU Bonchan (KOR) – recurve man, 26pts (6th): Antalya silver and two points off the top five isn’t enough when you shoot for Korea. Both OH Jin Hyek and LEE Seungyun are ahead of him. Karina WINTER (GER) – recurve women, 11pts (17th): Even if WINTER wins Wroclaw, she won’t overtake Lisa UNRUH in the table – and Elena RICHTER is even higher up. Evidence of a strong, strong season from the German women’s trio. Braden GELLENTHIEN (USA) – compound man, 11pts (16th): Wroclaw silver would jump five-time finalist Braden ahead of Reo WILDE and Bridger DEATON. Unless they both make the third round – then he’s out.

There are (at least) two names, worth watching, right on the bubble:

Brady ELLISON (USA) – recurve man, 21pts (10th): No podium finishes for Brady so far in 2014, but top eights in Shanghai and Medellin are enough to push him into the top 10 in the rankings. Mike SCHLOESSER (NED) – compound man, 18pts (12th): World Champion SCHLOESSER is eight ranking points off the pace right now, but won bronze in Antalya. …and pick any of the recurve women sat between 10th and 20th. From Olympic bronze medallist Mariana AVITIA (MEX) to world-title holder Maja JAGER (DEN), the division is so close any of them could qualify.

Seven things we didn’t know before stage three

1) Just how professionally Mexico’s Aida ROMAN took her search for a new coach.

2) Belgium has a compound mixed team. Sarah PRIEELS and Michael CAUWE knocked off Colombia in a determined final, during which the pair averaged 39 (out of 40) points a set.

3) Spare bows are important. Okay: we all knew this, but the recurve men’s final in Antalya confirmed it.

4) Jayanta TALUKDAR remains in particularly humorous spirits, despite his on-again, off-again relationship with the Indian team.

5) Korea would win its first World Cup stage individual gold in the compound competition.

6) Takaharu FURUKAWA would get his revenge for the London 2012 gold medal match loss.

7) The USA compound teams would both be beaten in 2014. After retaining clean sheets through the first two stages, the Netherlands beat the USA men and Russia the women to team golds in Antalya.

Storylines to watch… in Wroclaw

1) Marcus DALMEIDA’s claim on a recurve men’s Lausanne spot. The young Brazilian sits in fifth: high enough to probably qualify, but low enough to be under threat.

2) Whether Iraq makes history by qualifying its first ever athlete for the World Cup Final. Fatimah ALMASHHADANI is really, really close in the compound women’s event.

3) The Korea effect. Korea – and China, for that matter – is skipping the Wroclaw stage of this year’s Archery World Cup, instead focusing on training for the Incheon 2014 Asian Games.

This throws qualification for Lausanne completely open. Favourites at every recurve stage they attend, the big points for medal finishes won’t go to Korea but be up for grabs – meaning archers far further down the ranking list have a chance to qualify.

And in the compound, depending on how the results fall, both CHOI’s – gentleman Yong Hee and Bomin, the women’s former recurve world team champion – might be out, despite currently sitting in fourth and sixth respectively. If there was no Asian Games this year, you would expect to see both in Wroclaw securing their spots.

The upshot is: predicting which athletes will qualify for Lausanne is almost impossible…

Bring on Wroclaw.

Competition at the fourth 2014 Archery World Cup stage in Wroclaw starts on Wednesday 6 August. Check event news, and visit World Archery’s Facebook page and @worldarchery on Twitter for coverage.